![]() ![]() ![]() Temperature is a double whammy when it comes to snow totals. So while you're socked in with snow in Joliet, that may not be the case for your sister in Naperville or your parents in Orland Park. That's because narrow bands of heavy snow are sometimes only 5 miles to 10 miles wide, and within these bands snow can fall at rates greater than 1 inch an hour.Īnd changes to moisture in the atmosphere as well as the temperature when it snows can also effect how much snow an area gets. More intense snowstorms often result in greater variation in snow totals even across a small area, because these snow events often involve heavy snow falling in narrow bands, according to the Weather Channel. If the weather models being used to develop forecasts get any of these details wrong, it can drastically change the forecast.įor example, snow typically falls to the north and northwest of a low-pressure system, according to Treehugger. But forecasts often rely on data from weather systems more than 1,000 miles away, so if the track of the weather system changes, so, too, does the forecast for what areas may get snow. It might rain in Will County but snow in Lake County, or even vice versa.Īnd snow is much more tricky to forecast than rain, because small details can have major effects on how a snow system develops. The difference between it snowing or raining or sleeting can depend on a variety of factors, and those factors may not be consistent even across a relatively small geographic region, like the Chicago area. Even determining what kind of precipitation will fall can be a challenge in the winter. In addition, precipitation is much more difficult to forecast in general than temperature, Climate Central reports. ![]() There's a lot of uncertainty in any weather forecast for more than four or five days out, according to Climate Central. To start with, the further away any weather event is, the more uncertain the weather models are and, therefore, the forecasts. Why is this routine something we've just come to accept about winter? Why can meteorologists tell us that it will rain next Thursday or know 10 days in advance that we are in for a record-breaking heat wave or cold spell, but they just can't seem to figure out if it is going to snow 2 inches or 10 inches until sometimes a few hours before the snow moves in? only to get a dusting of snow, hardly enough to even shovel. We make time in our busy schedules for a trip to the grocery store to stock up only to find the shelves bare, so we grab what we can before heading home to hunker down. A foot of snow, maybe even 2 feet, could soon blanket northern Illinois. The TV news reports a snowstorm of epic proportions is on its way. ![]()
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